Macroeconomic Forecast Uruguay

Uruguay's economy expanded at a rate of 4.1% q-o-q in Q309, marking a considerable recovery in economic output from the 11.1% q-o-q contraction seen in the first quarter of 2009. This means that the Uruguayan economy grew by 1.7% y-o-y in the first three quarters of the year, prompting us to revise up our 2009 real GDP growth estimates. We are now estimating the Uruguayan economy to have grown 1.9% in 2009, from previous projections for 0.7% growth. In particular, we now only see a 1.0% contraction in gross fixed capital formation (from -5.0% previously), and see real growth in exports of goods and services coming in at 1.2% from -2.0% previously.

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