Macroeconomic Forecast Colombia

Remittances registered a robust upturn in October, to US$344mn from US$314mn the previous month. However, while just 19.5% down from October 2008 levels (compared to September's negative 34.6% y-o-y reading) the year-to-date level of US$3.4bn remains well below the US$4.1bn recorded in October 2008, and we expect this level to continue declining in the months ahead. While remittances equate to just 3.4% of total private consumption levels in 2009 (a much smaller proportion than in other regional states), this slowdown is likely to place further downside pressure on household spending levels in 2010, in our view, which we project to grow at just 2.0% in real terms.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: