Macroeconomic Forecast Dominican Republic

The Dominican economy posted an impressive bounce in Q209, with real GDP growing by 5.2% q-o-q, following a 3.6% q-o-q contraction in Q109. On a year-on-year basis, the real economy posted a growth rate of 1.4% in the first half of 2009, suggesting to us that the economy will avoid a full-year contraction. Headline growth came in at 1.8% y-o-y in Q209, propelled primarily by robust private consumption growth, which added 5.5 percentage points to the headline figure. We are therefore revising up our real GDP growth forecast for 2009 to 1.9% from -1.7% previously.

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