Macroeconomic Forecast Uruguay

Industrial output in Uruguay continued to drop in August, albeit at a more moderate pace than seen in previous months. Industrial production (IP) fell 3.0% y-o-y, following 4.4% and 6.0% contractions in July and June, respectively. However, compared to the previous month, industrial output dropped in August, to the tune of 1.5%, marking the first monthly drop since April. Interestingly, the IP measure excluding the country's Ancap oil refinery, posted a monthly increase in output of 0.6%, signalling a more pronounced moderation in negative year-on-year IP growth in August (-1.1%). We are currently forecasting IP to contract by 0.9% y-o-y by end-2009, and expand at an average clip of 1.2% y-o-y in 2010.

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