Economic Outlook Picking Up

The rate of decline in consumer confidence in Mexico continued to slow in September, with the three month moving average of the year-on-year growth rate rising to -6.7% from -7.7% in August. This marks the continuation of a trend which began following the March trough, when the three month average dropped to -21.8%, and lends further support to our view that Q209 marked the nadir of Mexico's recession. What is more, with growth in consumer confidence having acted as a reliable precursor of movement in retail sales since mid-2007, the rebound should also see a concomitant uptick in retail sales.

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