Macroeconomic Forecast Chile

Chilean supermarket sales jumped in August, rising by 8.1% m-o-m, up from just 1.4% in July and a 5.9% m-o-m contraction in June. In real terms, too, supermarket sales in Latin America's fifth-largest economy were strong, rising 7.6% m-o-m, up from 1.8% in the previous month. Despite this encouraging reading, we continue to caution against premature optimism for the economy. The supermarket sales index is traditionally a volatile measure, and we would have to see a return of consumer confidence and a more pronounced feed-through effect of monetary easing and fiscal stimuli before suggesting that private consumption levels in Chile will remain robust going forward. For the time being, we hold to our 2009 real private consumption growth forecast of negative 1.7%.

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