Macroeconomic Forecast Peru

Lower investment profit repatriation during H109, combined with a relatively strong performance in trade of goods in this period, has seen Peru's current account deficit narrow to just US$374mn. Peru's income deficit stood at US$2.8bn in H109, compared with a US$5.4bn shortfall during the same period a year earlier. Although the final merchandise trade surplus was slightly lower at US$1.7bn this time around (compared with US$2.4bn in H108), this has seen the current account deficit narrow substantially from the US$2.4bn shortfall in H108. On the back of this, we are revising our current account deficit forecast for 2009 to US$750mn (from US$3.3bn previously).

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