Recession Only Just Begun

Real GDP growth came in at -2.4% y-o-y in Q209. While this was the worst figure in 23 quarters, oil-fuelled government spending prevented a more intense collapse. Although we remain extremely bearish Venezuela's medium-term economic growth outlook, our forecast for a 5.6% contraction this year faces upside risks owing to renewed oil price gains. Nevertheless, the outlook for 2010 remains bleak and we are sticking with our view of a 6.4% contraction.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: