Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

We have revised Guatemala's full-year trade projections in 2009, and now expect the trade deficit to come in at just US$4.4bn from US$5.3bn previously. Exports have proven relatively resilient to global forces, encouraging us to bump up the full-year value to US$4.7bn from US$4.3bn previously. Meanwhile, imports have really felt the pain of collapsing domestic demand, and we have revised our full-year total down to US$9.1bn from US$9.6bn, accordingly. As such, our current account forecast this year improves from a deficit of 2.5% of GDP, to a shortfall of just 0.6%.

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