Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

According to the country's central bank, Banguat, economic activity fell by 0.2% y-o-y in April, the third contraction in four months. Indeed, were it not for the seasonal impact of March's 1.98% print, economic activity would have been in even worse shape, lending weight to our view that the country is already in recession. We are forecasting an out-of-consensus real GDP contraction of 1.7% in 2009, with only a modest recovery pencilled in for 2010 to positive 0.5%. Of course, much will depend on the speed of recovery in Guatemala's two largest commercial and financial partners, the US and Mexico, over the coming months and quarters.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: