Macroeconomic Forecast Mexico

According to IMF statistics, Mexico's foreign reserves (excluding gold) fell to US$84.0bn in April, a 9.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) fall, significantly greater than March's 6.1% y-o-y drop. Nevertheless, actual reserve levels fell less in April than in the previous month, down only US$1.4bn compared to US$4.5bn in March, suggesting that reserves are finding some relief from a rapid contraction in imports and relative currency stability. As a result of this more moderate fall we have revised up our end-2009 foreign reserve projections to US$75bn from our previous US$65bn forecast.

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