Macroeconomic Forecast Honduras

Honduras's merchandise trade deficit registered a 23.7% y-o-y improvement in the first quarter of 2009, coming in at US$0.93bn (from US$1.22bn in Q108). The main reason for this narrowing in the trade account was that the collapse in imports far exceeded the slump in exports. Indeed, imports fell by 20.5% y-o-y during the quarter, compared to a 15.5% y-o-y drop in exports, as domestic demand came off the boil. The first quarter figures lend weight to our view that the country's trade shortfall will narrow to US$4.65bn in 2009, from US$6.20bn last year.

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