Swine Flu Further Weakens Economic Health

BMI View: We believe that the fallout from the swine-flu outbreak is bad news for Mexico's economy. While financial markets have recovered quickly, the longer-term economic impact has encouraged us to downgrade our 2009 nominal fiscal deficit forecast to 3.3% of GDP, and we now see real GDP growth coming in at negative 7.1% this year, worse than in the aftermath of the 1994 Tequila Crisis.

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