Macroeconomic Forecast Trinidad & Tobago

October 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: In line with our call, the Central Bank of Trinidad & Tobago (CBTT) tightened monetary policy by 25bps in September, taking the repo rate up to 8.75%. The decision was unsurprising given the alarming acceleration in inflationary pressures this year. Headline price growth stood at a 14-year high of 13.5% y-o-y in August, with surging food prices (up 30.2% y-o-y) chiefly to blame. We do expect inflation to start moderating as the remainder of the year unfolds, but believe that the process could take longer than originally anticipated given the country's significant output constraints. As such, we have revised up our end-2008 CPI forecast to 10.5%, from 8.8% previously.

If you would like to subscribe to Caribbean Monitor and gain instant access to this article, please click here to subscribe.

If you would like to take a trial to Caribbean Monitor please click on the trial link below.