Macroeconomic Forecast Ecuador

October 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: The government is forecasting real GDP growth of 4.0% in 2009 on the grounds of increased private and public sector investment in the oil industry and resilient consumer demand. We believe that the government may be underestimating both the impact of declining international energy demand, as global economic growth weakens considerably across the board, and the effect of ongoing financial market turbulence. As such, we are forecasting economic expansion at a much lower 1.8% next year, with only a slight improvement (to 1.9%) in 2010.

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