Macroeconomic Forecast Colombia

October 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: As we had suspected, a disinflationary story is slowly starting to take hold across EM, and Colombia is no exception. Latest CPI data show that headline prices fell 0.19% m-o-m in September, the first contraction in 13 months. Year-on-year price growth also moderated for the first time in five months from 7.9% in August to 7.6%. This could represent the inflection point we have been waiting for. With Colombian economic activity significantly off the boil (real GDP growth slowed to 4.1% y-o-y in Q208 from 9.1% a year earlier), the ongoing retracement in soft commodity prices should lift further pressure off the Colombian consumer price basket.

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