Widening Trade Surplus To Be Short Lived

The strong performance of the Argentine export sector and sharp reduction in imports in August puts our US$10.4bn (3.3% of GDP) 2008 trade surplus forecast at risk of being overshot. However, as commodity prices fall further, we expect import growth to slow more rapidly than that of imports over the coming months, which will see the trade surplus fall to US$9.0bn (2.4% of GDP) in 2009.

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