Macroeconomic Forecast Costa Rica

Costa Rica's trade balance took a battering in the first seven months of 2008. According to central bank data, the deficit widened by 96.6% y-o-y between January and July to US$3.3bn, prompted by a 27.9% y-o-y surge in imports (well in excess of the 6.4% y-o-y rate of export growth witnessed during the same period). Slower US consumer demand and the surge in global raw material prices have been the main factors in play. We stick to our full-year trade deficit of US$5.2bn, as we believe that import growth will come off slightly (if not significantly) as commodities grind lower.

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