Macroeconomic Forecast Uruguay

September 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

We see a continued deterioration in Uruguay's trade balance this year, after rapidly rising import growth saw the overall trade balance slip into a US$1.57bn deficit during the first half of the year. This compares to a year-to-date trade deficit of just US$293mn during the same period a year earlier. Year-to-date imports grew by a staggering 92.5% y-o-y in June, compared to 43.6% y-o-y export growth. We are revising our current account forecast for this year from a 1.2% of GDP shortfall to a 6.7% deficit, as Uruguay's trade deficit looks set for further widening this year to US$2.16bn (compared to a US$559mn deficit in 2007).

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