Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

BMI View: Despite concerns that American holidaymakers would stay away amid a US economic slowdown, tourism flows have remain relatively robust so far in 2008. Related revenues increased by 9.6% y-o-y between January and May, in line with official forecasts that see income rising by 10% to US$1.3bn in 2008. Given the importance of tourism flows as an important exchange earner, a healthy outturn should help mitigate the impact of a costlier oil import bill on the current account. Nevertheless, we still see the current account widening to US$1.8bn (4.5% of GDP) in 2008 from US$1.6bn (4.4%) last year.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: