Current Account Deficit Outlook In The Balance

With March's trade balance posting a surplus of UIS$123.6mn to bring the Q108 deficit to only US$224.9mn, we are looking for further signals in the coming months that might suggest a revision to our current account outlook. Our core view is for Colombia's current account deficit to widen towards the region of US$7.4bn in 2008, from US$5.9bn in 2007. However, with the continued elevation of global oil prices bolstering exports, coupled with an economic slowdown which would feed into reduced consumer and intermediate goods imports, the risks of the trade and current account deficits widening are to the downside.

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