Economic Ratings: Power To The People

BMI forecasts that Mexico will account for 25.9% of Latin America regional power generation by 2012, developing a power surplus available for export to the US. BMI 's Latin America power generation estimate for 2007 is 1,084 terawatt hours (twh), representing an annual increase of 3.9%. We are forecasting growth in regional generation to 1,376twh by 2012, representing a rise of 27.0%. Oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for 56.4% of 2006 primary energy demand (PED), followed by gas at 31.6%, coal at 6%, hydro-electric energy at 4.4% and nuclear energy with a 1.6% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 627mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2012, representing 21.1% growth over the assumed 2007 level. Mexico's estimated 2007 market share of 31.1% is set to rise to 31.9% by 2012. Mexico's estimated 11.2twh of nuclear demand in 2007 is forecast to reach 14.0twh by 2012, with its share of the Latin America nuclear market falling from 34.0% to 33.2% over the period.

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