Macroeconomic Forecast Ecuador

June 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Remittances from abroad fell by 8.0% q-o-q in Q108 to US$759.6mn, although the figure was up 12.3% y-o-y from US$676.4mn in the same period in 2007. This large increase was in part due to extra monetary help being sent in response to regional flooding. Despite the slowdown in the US, we do anticipate a major deterioration in remittance flows, due to the strong euro bolstering funds sent from Ecuadorians in Spain and Italy compensating for falling sums sent from the US. Remittances make up the equivalent of over 21% of exports, but with global oil prices elevated, we anticipate Ecuador's current account surplus coming in at around US$1.4bn for the year, around 2.9% of GDP.

If you would like to subscribe to Andean Group Monitor and gain instant access to this article, please click here to subscribe.

If you would like to take a trial to Andean Group Monitor please click on the trial link below.