Macroeconomic Forecast Barbados

May 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

According to latest IMF data, exports fell by 16.7% q-o-q from US$89.4mn to US$74.5mn in Q307. Q2 historically is the strongest quarter, and we are encouraged that this quarterly dip is not as severe as the 32.0% q-o-q fall seen in 2006. On an annualised basis, exports propelled ahead by 10.2%, much faster than the corresponding 1.7% growth in imports. However, with imports in Q307 valued at US$382.5mn, the US$6.9mn increase in exports over the period only marginally covered the US$6.4mn increase in imports. In the face of rising food and energy costs, we anticipate the trade deficit come in just over US$1.2bn in 2007 and to widen to US$1.3bn in 2008.

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