Macroeconomic Forecast Trinidad & Tobago

Headline inflation rose by 9.4% y-o-y in February driven primarily by soaring food and energy prices. Although this represented a better outturn than the 10.0% y-o-y inflation clip observed in the previous month, it still confirmed the significant deterioration in the inflation picture in 2008 (headline CPI rose by 7.6% y-o-y in 2007). Like many others, Trinidad & Tobago is struggling with the international escalation of food prices. In mid-March, the government announced a reduction in tariffs on a wide range of products and discussed putting in place a series of incentives for farmers. If these measures take hold, we are confident of meeting our headline inflation forecast of 6.8% y-o-y by year-end.

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