Macroeconomic Forecast Chile

Chile's merchandise trade surplus is on the rise again, as exports pushed above US$7.0bn in March, a 22.6% y-o-y increase, compared to imports of US$4.4bn. However, the annual growth rate of imports has picked up to 19.9%, with year-to-date imports rising to US$13.0bn in March, compared to US$9.9bn during the same period a year ago. While high copper prices are expected to keep the trade surplus buoyed this year, we caution that the ongoing slowdown in global economic activity will likely lead to an erosion of the trade surplus in 2008. Indeed, we currently forecast the surplus to narrow to US$18.4bn this year (down from US$23.0bn in 2007 as high global energy and food prices will see imports continue rising at a faster pace.

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