Andean Conflict Fears Brewing

March 2008 | Political Risk Analysis

BMI View: Following a cross-border raid by Colombian forces into Ecuador - resulting in the assassination of a top leader of the paramilitary group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez has warned that any similar provocation on Venezuelan soil would be tantamount to an act of war. From our standpoint, it is unlikely (although not impossible) that Chávez's aggressive rhetoric will trigger a military conflict, although we are increasingly concerned about an alarming disintegration in intra-regional relations.

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