Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

BMI View: Guatemala amassed US$US$4.13bn in international reserves (excluding gold) last year - just shy of our US$4.20bn forecast. This external cushion is equivalent to roughly 3.4 months worth of import cover. Going forward, while we expect the accumulation of foreign reserves to continue - we are eyeing up a total level of US$4.40bn and US$4.80bn in 2008 and 2009 respectively - the value in terms of import cover is likely to fall. This is largely because import growth will remain high on the back of robust global commodity prices and resilient domestic demand despite a US economic slowdown.

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