Macroeconomic Forecast Brazil

March 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Brazil's registered unemployment rate ticked up to 8.0% in January, up from 7.4% in December. We do not believe that the monthly increase in the unemployment rate constitutes deteriorating labour market conditions. Indeed, looking at the 12-month moving average unemployment rate (at 9.2% in January), we identify a marked improvement in the labour situation in Brazil, with the rate clearly coming down from six months of 10.0% ending in February 2007. Going forward, we expect Brazil's labour market to continue tightening, forecasting an average unemployment rate of 7.6% in 2008.

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