New Constitution No Sure Thing

November 2007 | Ratings Update

The referendum over President Hugo Chávez's constitutional reforms is approaching and the opinion polls suggest the affair will be more closely fought than we had previously anticipated. The anti-Chávez contingent was given a fillip by former defence minister and Chávez ally Raúl Isaías Baduel, who urged the public to reject the changes and described the proposal for unlimited re-election as a coup. We expect political tensions to remain elevated in the run up to December 2, and now see a 'no' vote as a real possibility, which could have mixed effects on our short - and long-term political risk

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