POLITICAL RISK - Three's A Crowd

The first key vote of the April 2008 presidential election race will occur on December 16, when the ruling Partido Colorado (PC) will decide whether Blanca Ovelar or Luis Castiglioni is the official presidential candidate. Castiglioni is currently favoured by the public, according to local opinion polls, which suggest he would fare better against the opposition candidates Fernando Lugo and Lino Oviedo. We expect a close three-way contest in April, which raises political risk in the short term, and could also prompt an array of populist pre-election pledges that threaten long-term economic

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