Macroeconomic Forecast Mexico

February 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: Banxico has introduced a slightly altered inflation index with the first inflation data releases of 2008, to include the cost of private education in the core basket. Under the old index, core inflation fell to a four-month low of 3.9% y-o-y in January, whereas the new index has a reading of 4.1% y-o-y. Overall CPI - which appears to have retained the same index - continued edging downwards, with an increase of 3.7% y-o-y. Posting the slowest yearly price growth since August 2006, we believe the likelihood has boosted of a rate cut to 7.25% before H208. We will monitor the new indices closely.

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