Macroeconomic Forecast Ecuador

BMI View: In December 2007, tax receipts increased by 27.3% y-o-y to US$448.5bn, helping bring the country's total fiscal revenues for the year to US$5.1bn. Exceeding the government's own expectations of US$4.9bn, this was a 13.3% increase on the previous year, driven more by higher taxes and better tax compliance than by increased output, with 2007 GDP growth slowing from 4.2% to an estimated 2.3%. Ecuador will be less affected than many countries in the region by a US slowdown, and we expect to see growth of 2.8% in 2008.

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