Election Coming Down To The Wire

August 2007 | Political Risk Analysis

BMI View: With the first round of the Guatemalan presidential election looming on September 9, the campaign is shaping up to be a two-man race. We believe that the UNE's Álvaro Colom and the PP's Otto Pérez Molina will advance to the second-round vote on November 4, but the outlook at that stage is uncertain. In our core scenario - a Colom victory in the second round - the government will shift slightly from the centre-right of the spectrum to the centre-left, but we do not believe that this result would have major consequences for the policy outlook.

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