Elections Are Key

With elections for the Constituent Assembly set for September 30 and its installation a month later on October 31, we would not be surprised to see a rise in political risk, no matter who wins. On the one hand, should Correa's allies perform well, we would expect the private sector to reduce investment because of economic policy uncertainty. On the other hand, a failure for Correa's allies to win a clear majority could lead to (in the worst of cases) a breakdown of government. We believe the latter scenario is less likely than a simple political deadlock which would, nevertheless,

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