Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

June 2007 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: The trade deficit for Q107 came in at US$1.45bn, according to preliminary estimates. The 12-month accumulated deficit to March is US$6.0bn, and we believe that our year-end US$6.3bn forecast is still in play. That said, there are risks of a smaller deficit this year. One factor: in recent months we have seen a sharp increase in export growth (24% y-o-y in the February-March period, the highest rate since the economic crisis of 2001-02), owing, we believe, to solid terms of trade for key commodity exports and increased DR-CAFTA related activity.

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