Political Risk - US Immigration Bill Hits Headlines

June 2007 | Risk Summary

Ongoing brinkmanship between the Democrats and Republicans in US congress appears to be coming to a head, with a watered down bill the most likely scenario. The current bill aims to tighten border security between the US and Mexico, with the erection of 370 miles of fencing, increased vehicle barriers and extended patrolling. It also proposes the chance for the 12 million illegal workers in the US to become 'legalised', on the proviso that certain criteria are met, including a US$1,000 fine, and the creation of new temporary work visas. An additional issuance of 400,000 work visas per annum for temporary migrant workers is also under discussion. We expect a compromise to be reached - possibly with the guest worker programme slashed to 200,000 and harsher punishments on illegals. From Mexico's perspective, we believe that the government must work diligently to establish economic policies that decrease emigration over the medium term, regardless of the US bill. This will involve a renewed focus on rural investment and job creation in Mexico.

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