Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

March 2007 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: Our forecast for Guatemala's merchandise trade deficit in 2006 came in very close to the mark, at US$5.95bn, versus the actual US$5.89bn preliminary figure. However, the volume of both imports and exports came in higher than we had expected (by around US$300mn apiece). We have bumped up our import and export forecasts for 2007 and 2008 as a result, although our overall trade balance forecasts remain roughly the same. Our steady current account deficit projections reflect our view that remittance inflows should continue to offset the trade shortfall.

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