Kirchner Favourite

The latest opinion polls consider President Nestor Kirchner the clear favourite to be re-elected in October, should he decide to run. Even if he doesn't, similar polls show that his opponents fail to make up significant ground of Kirchner's wife, Senator Cristina Fernández. We expect Kirchner to continue with his rather populist approach to economic management, using direct price controls to contain inflationary pressures on key goods, while the central bank holds the currency within a relatively narrow range. We do not see a severe risk to our short-term political risk ratings from the election itself, though Kirchner's ability to

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