Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

December 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Guatemala's economic activity index (IMAE) rose by 5.14% y-o-y in September, as an improving inflationary picture (September's consumer inflation came in at just 5.70% y-o-y, compared to 9.45% y-o-y in the corresponding year-earlier period) and falling lending rates set the tone for strong growth at the beginning of H206. While IMAE is only a rough proxy for economic expansion, we still anticipate solid real GDP growth of 3.8% in 2006, up from 3.2% in the previous year. Looking ahead, we expect growth to relent somewhat in 2007 and 2008 to 3.4% and 3.1% respectively, as the effect of a US

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