Political Uncertainty

November 2006 | Ratings Update

Whilst we believe that an Alvaro Noboa victory in the second round election would be a positive for Ecuador, we are concerned over the direction of his electoral campaign. In recent weeks Noboa, a market friendly banana magnate has been campaigning on a fairly populist platform, potentially masking his pro business stance. Should he win on November 26 and then diverge from his populist election strategy, he may well lose some popular support. This could lead to potential deadlocks arising in congress, which would weigh on Ecuador's political system, adding to political uncertainty.

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