The Final Countdown

September 2006 | Ratings Update

Our long-held core scenario for the October 1 election remains intact: President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva looks set to claim a second term in office, with polls in early September showing him with a commanding 50% to 27% lead over his nearest rival, the PSDB's Geraldo Alckmin. We stand by our view that the best Alckmin can hope for is to force a second round vote, which will give him an additional month to put his case before the Brazilian electorate. Either way, we think policy stability will be the

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