Macroeconomic Forecast Argentina

June 2006 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: Despite posting high nominal figures, export and import growth slowed considerably in April. Exports, which have grown by an average of 15.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first three months of the year, equalled US$3.8bn, which represents y-o-y growth of just 7.4%. Imports, which have grown even faster than exports in 2006 (an average of 23.6% for the same period), totalled US$2.5bn - an increase of 7.0% y-o-y. While Q1 current account figures are not yet available, we see faster import growth (in general) reducing the trade and current account surpluses over 2006. BMI sees the current account surplus ending the year at US$2.8bn in 2006 (1.3% of GDP), falling to US$1.2bn in 2007 (0.5% of GDP).

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