A Two Horse Race

January 2006 | Ratings Update

Mexico will hold presidential elections in July of this year. Despite our earlier concerns, a Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) comeback now appears unlikely with leftist López Obrador of the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) leading the polls on 35%, shortly followed by the ruling Partido Acción Nacional (PAN)’s Felipe Calderón on 24% and PRI’s Roberto Madrazo tailing behind on 16%. Vicente Fox’s lack of progress on the reform agenda will, in BMI’s view, secure a PRD win in July. However, broad macroeconomic stability should ensure that Mexico avoids the usual sexenio crisis that has accompanied previous political transitions and

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