ColombiaAugust 2012 | Risk Summary
A July United Nations report found that 2011 coca production increased 80% in Colombia's southern provinces of Caqueta and Putumayo that year, traditional havens for guerrilla groups. Despite a reduction in counternarcotics aid from the United States, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos has stated that his government will continue its efforts to eradicate coca production and combat rebel groups. Greater coca production in the south may mean more cocaine revenue for guerrilla forces and, potentially, an uptick in destabilizing violence. Increased violence between government and guerrilla forces could convince us to downgrade Colombia's political risk rating, though we see no need to do so at present.
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