Macroeconomic Forecast Guyana

BMI View: Guyana's total external debt burden continued to rise in Q411, ending the year at US$1.2bn (53.6% of GDP). Given our view that Guyana will continue to run a substantial nominal fiscal deficit for the foreseeable future, we forecast the country's total external debt load to continue growing in coming quarters, reaching US$1.3bn by end-2012. While the debt burden is unlikely to become unwieldy in the next few years, rising external debt servicing payments could pose a risk to the country's fiscal stability in the medium term.

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