Macroeconomic Forecast Ecuador

We are revising up our end-2012 consumer price inflation forecast for Ecuador from 3.0% to 4.5%. Inflation has not cooled as much as we expected during the beginning of the year, coming in at 4.9% in May, and encouraging us to revise bump up our forecast. Moreover, with presidential elections in Ecuador scheduled for February 2013, we expect monetary stimulus to remain elevated this year as a strategy to increase political support, increasing demand side inflationary pressures.

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