Macroeconomic Forecast Nicaragua

In the first four months of 2012, Nicaragua's IMAE (economic activity indicator) recorded growth of 5.0% y-o-y. While above our 2012 real GDP growth forecast of 3.3%, we see potential for a substantial slowdown in the coming months such that we are happy to stick with our projection. Indeed, we believe rising global headwinds will see net exports weigh increasingly heavily on the country's economic activity, especially given the sharp deterioration in coffee prices in recent months as well as our expectation for weaker US consumer spending starting in H212.

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