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Economy / Uruguay

Macroeconomic Forecast Uruguay

June 2012 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: Consumer price inflation in Uruguay has remained stubbornly high in the early stages of 2012, coming in at 8.06% y-o-y in May, up from 7.99% the previous month. While this places upside risks on our end-2012 inflation forecast of 7.00%, we still see plenty of potential for demand-side price pressures to cool in the latter stages of the year. In addition, while our Commodities team has recently revised up our corn price forecast for 2012, we have also downgraded our Brent crude price forecast, which on balance will likely ensure supply-side pressures are kept under control. We are therefore happy to stick with our end-year inflation forecast for the time being.

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