Social Unrest To Increase

BMI View: We expect Honduran President Porfirio Lobo to implement increasingly hard-line anti-cartel policies in the run-up to the country's 2013 elections, in an attempt to strengthen public perception of his party's record on security. That said, in the absence of reforms addressing the country's endemic corruption and widespread culture of impunity, we see potential for such an approach to backfire, prompting increased social unrest.

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